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Perseids 1901-2100: predictions of activity

1901-1910
For 1901-1910 no meaningful encounters with Perseid trails are found. However, in 1909 a significant increase of background activity is likely. It will be 30-50 meteors on ZHR scale higher than usual. In 1908 and 1910 background activity can also be somewhat heightened.

1911-1920
1916
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
41348-0.000339.65-0.001139.93811.08.1916 19:4611
413480.0029314.42-0.012139.96811.08.1916 20:3111

1917
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
413480.0029114.09-0.012139.93112.08.1917 1:4511

1920
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
41348-0.0005610.180.008139.85811.08.1920 18:2381
In the first half of 1911-1920 period the normal or even lowered level of Perseid activity is expected. However after 1916 due to Jupiter influence activity should rise, especially in 1919 and 1920. In 1920 maximum activity can reach about 200 meteors on ZHR scale.

1921-1930
In 1921 a very high level of Perseid activity is expected, ZHR can reach about 200 meteors. Also a qiute strong maximum is likely in 1922. Then during the rest years of the decade maximum activity will gradually decrease, and in its second half it will be already below normal level.

1931-1940
1931
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
512120.000237.660.001139.83812.08.1931 19:3311

Heightened Perseid activity is expected in 1933. ZHR will reach 150 meteors. In other years of the decade activity will be about normal level or (in the second hald of the decade) somewhat lower than normal level.

1941-1950
In this decade heightened Perseids activity up to 150-180 meteors on ZHR scale is expected in 1945 and 1950. The first time it will be caused by Jupiter influence and the second one due to Saturn. In 1941, 1942 and 1948 activity should be lower than normal level.

1951-1960
During this decade heightened Persied activity thanking to Jupiter should occur in 1956 and 1957. Both times it will reach 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale.

1961-1970
In this decate Jupiter will cause heightened activity in 1968 - up to 150 meteors on ZHR scale, also activity will likely be above normal level (reaching 120-130 meteors on ZHR scale) in 1969. In the rest years of the decade activity will be close to the normal level - 100 meteors on ZHR scale.

1971-1980
1979
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
11867-0.00055-30.380.117139.50512.08.1979 12:362471
513480.00477-17.45-0.009139.77212.08.1979 19:1711

1980
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
316100.00492-11.270.026139.37311.08.1980 15:2810
41479-0.00055-15.100.041139.61311.08.1980 21:28710
41479-0.00051-15.12-0.016139.61611.08.1980 21:32290
414790.00043-15.150.001139.61911.08.1980 21:3710
41479-0.00104-14.32-0.001139.62411.08.1980 21:4410
51348-0.00322-17.60-0.004139.69211.08.1980 23:2710
513480.00176-14.810.009139.70511.08.1980 23:4730
513480.00154-15.720.002139.75312.08.1980 0:5810
513480.00088-15.00-0.024139.78212.08.1980 1:42190
513480.00222-15.69-0.003139.78712.08.1980 1:4910
513480.00099-15.06-0.003139.79112.08.1980 1:5620
513480.00104-15.060.002139.79212.08.1980 1:5610

All the decade a quite strong background Perseids activity will persist, but it will especially strengthen in 1979 and 1980 due to mixed impact from Jupiter and Saturn. In 1979 maximum activity will be about 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale, also before traditional maximum, at 12:36 UT 12 August, a peak from 1862 trail is likely. It should reach 100-130 meteors on ZHR scale with increase of average meteor brightness. In 1980 traditional activity can surpass 200 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, at 21:30 UT 11 August 1579 trail can give a small enhancement with increase of bright meteors numbers. Another burst of bright meteors can occur at 2 UT 12 August due to 1348 trail.

1981-1990
1981
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
118620.00049-25.450.113139.41711.08.1981 22:4410951

1987
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
316100.00267-4.770.022139.63612.08.1987 5:2610
414790.00099-13.640.005139.81412.08.1987 9:5350

In this decade a strongly heightnened activity is expected in 1981 due to continuing influence from Jupiter and Saturn. Background activity can reach 200 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, before this maximum, at 22:44 UT 11 August, 1862 trail will produce outburst up to 150-200 meteors on ZHR scale, average meteor brightness will be very high. Activity above normal level, with ZHR of 120-130 meteors, should also be present in 1982. Then activity will come down to the norm, and the next increase is likely in 1986 and in the following years of the decade. This heightened actiivity will be caused by planets influence as well as closing perihelion of the parent comet 109P.

1991-2000
1991
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
31610-0.00016-2.10-0.005139.57212.08.1991 16:08341
31610-0.00084-3.350.031139.60112.08.1991 16:51131
31610-0.00100-4.07-0.008139.61312.08.1991 17:1031

1995
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
41479-0.00072-4.29-0.007139.63912.08.1995 18:2661
41479-0.00244-5.110.009139.64512.08.1995 18:3511

1996
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
414790.00069-5.33-0.001139.68012.08.1996 1:3611
41479-0.00253-6.71-0.016139.69512.08.1996 1:5811
41479-0.00124-6.920.002139.70512.08.1996 2:1411

1998
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
41479-0.00047-6.960.001139.70412.08.1998 14:3011
71079-0.000321.160.015139.71412.08.1998 14:4540
414790.00278-7.71-0.007139.74312.08.1998 15:3011
41479-0.00012-9.820.000139.75912.08.1998 15:5411

1999
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
414790.00113-13.200.005139.76212.08.1999 22:0751
710790.000001.230.000139.77512.08.1999 22:2610
71079-0.000221.250.001139.80012.08.1999 23:0310

2000
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
414790.00662-12.880.026139.79912.08.2000 5:1111
513480.00021-14.390.001139.84212.08.2000 6:1510

In the end of 1992 the comet 109P passes its perihelion. Also, in 1991-1993 positions of Perseid particles will be shifted due to Jupiter influence. So far in 1991 intensity of traditional Perseid maximum will reach 200-300 meteors on ZHR scale. Besides this, at 17 UT 12 August 1610 trail will give an outburst up to 200-250 meteors on ZHR scale with increase of their average brightness. In 1992 background activity will reach 500-600 meteors on ZHR scale, in 1993 its intensity will reach 400-500 meteors on ZHR scale. Heightened activity up to 150-200 meteors on ZHR scale is likely in the period of 1994-1997 years and only after 1998 activity will return to the normal level of 100-120 meteors on ZHR scale in maximum.

2001-2010
2003
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
118720.0061020.740.085139.51012.08.2003 16:2524

2004
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
11872-0.0012722.560.084139.43211.08.2004 20:381024

2005
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
118720.0046624.350.083139.44312.08.2005 3:0334

2008
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
41479-0.000434.810.001139.76112.08.2008 5:2911
513480.000112.130.000139.83512.08.2008 7:1911

2009
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
11872-0.0033531.320.079139.47812.08.2009 4:3314
217370.0046323.060.015139.59912.08.2009 7:3513
316100.0009411.820.005139.62112.08.2009 8:0753

In this decade Jupiter will cause heightened activity in 2004. It will reach 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, at 20:38 UT 11 August 1862 trail will produce an outburst up to 200 meteors on ZHR scale, brightness will be around average level. Also somewhat heightened activity is likely in 2003 and 2005. In 2006 and 2007 activity will be about normal level or slightly below it. Another increase of background activity will happen in 2009. In will be a strong one, activity can surpass level of 200 meteors on ZHR scale. Also heightened activity is expected in 2008 and 2010.

2011-2020
2013
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
414790.000025.090.000139.67212.08.2013 10:0112
41479-0.000085.070.000139.67212.08.2013 10:0112

2016
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
11862-0.0013442.760.073139.43611.08.2016 22:3414
414790.000085.300.002139.46811.08.2016 23:2382

In this decade during years 2011-2015 the normal level of activity is expected, around long-term ZHRs of 100 meteors. In 2016 Jupiter will cause significant increase up to 160-180 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2017 background maximum will be also somewhat heightnened, and after 2018 activtity should fall to the levels lower than usual activity.

2021-2030
2027
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
414790.003249.700.014139.74513.08.2027 1:5911
414790.0007910.46-0.001139.76313.08.2027 2:2611
71079-0.00026-5.46-0.002139.87113.08.2027 5:0810

2028
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
118620.0002860.480.065139.41411.08.2028 23:5214
31610-0.0001315.220.004139.45712.08.2028 0:5673
414790.0012616.62-0.006139.56212.08.2028 3:3421
41479-0.0008116.650.002139.57212.08.2028 3:4911
41479-0.0008516.65-0.002139.57212.08.2028 3:4911
414790.0003410.000.015139.64412.08.2028 5:36201
414790.0005410.43-0.003139.66312.08.2028 6:0641
414790.0004312.89-0.001139.69212.08.2028 6:5011

In this decade during years 2021-2026 a quite low background Perseid activity is expected, notably lower that normal level at 100 meteors on ZHR scale. However, in 2027 the Earth will cross a part of the stream perturbed by Jupiter, and activity will rise up to 120-130 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2028 Jupiter influence will be on the maximum level, also this year 1479 trail is expected to encounter with the Earth. This encounted was pointed out by Esko Lyytinen, who notes that it could cause a stormy outburst. We should say, that our computations lead to much more modest results, as 1479 trail is too stretched, though still remains quite regular in some parts. So far, the peak from 1479 will lie close to a strong background maximum and this will result in a very intensive Perseid maximum with ZHR up to 250-300 meteors at 5-6 UT 12 August. However it is far below stormy threshold. In 2029 activity will most likely be above normal level, reaching ZHR of 110-120 meteors and in 2030 it will return to the normal level.

2031-2040
2038
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
414790.0029619.660.007139.65812.08.2038 19:3011
513480.001246.43-0.002139.86513.08.2038 0:4110

2039
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
41479-0.0010419.790.007139.61813.08.2039 0:4021

2040
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
414790.0013419.890.013139.57012.08.2040 5:3731
414790.0014019.86-0.003139.57212.08.2040 5:3911
414790.0016319.99-0.005139.57312.08.2040 5:4111
61212-0.000436.840.003139.78012.08.2040 10:5120
61212-0.000856.84-0.004139.78512.08.2040 10:5910

During years 2031-2037 a normal or lowered background Perseid activity is expected, and in 2038-2040 Saturn and Jupiter influence will cause heightened activity during three successive years. In 2038 and 2040 it should reach 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale, and in 2039 it is quite likely to show a peak of 200 meteors on ZHR scale.

2041-2050
In this decade somewhat heightened activity is likely in 2041, then in 2042-2044 it should be about the norm of 100 meteors on ZHR scale and then to 2050 it will gradually decrease to levels notably lower than normal activity.

2051-2060
2056
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
513480.001199.54-0.004139.84312.08.2056 14:5411

In this decade heightened Perseid activity due to Jupiter influence is expected in 2051 and 2052. It will reach 120-130 meteors on ZHR scale. Also, somewhat heightened background activity is likely in 2055. In other decade years background maximum intensity will not surpass 100 meteors on ZHR scale.

2061-2070
2066
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
51348-0.0032910.68-0.023139.90512.08.2066 5:5911

2068
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
612120.0016110.320.023140.07912.08.2068 22:3940

In this decade activity will be heightened in 2063-2064 due to Jupiter and in 2068 due to Saturn. In the first case background maximum intensity will rise to 130-140 meteors on ZHR scale and in the second case activity will reach 150-170 meteors on ZHR scale. In the rest years of the decade activity will be about the norm of 100 meteors on ZHR scale.

2071-2080
2075
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
414790.0009830.69-0.083139.71213.08.2075 8:3211

In this decade Jupiter will cause an outburst of background activity in 2075. It will reach 150 meteors on ZHR scale. Also a somewhat heightened actitiity is likely in 2074 and 2076. In the rest years activity will not surpasss 100 meteors on ZHR scale.

2081-2090
In this decade heightened Perseid activity due to Jupiter influence will occur in 2087, It will reach 140-150 meteors on ZHR scale. In the rest years activity should not surpass 100 meteors on ZHR scale.

2091-2100
2094
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
218620.00315-29.990.032139.56413.08.2094 1:4514

2095
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
21862-0.00169-29.500.017139.53013.08.2095 7:0344

2098
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
514790.00241-18.550.003139.47813.08.2098 0:1311

2099
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
416100.00111-11.610.004139.39813.08.2099 4:2351
514790.00240-18.500.002139.42213.08.2099 4:5811

2100
encounters with trails
trailyearrD-rEVejfM(fMD)sol.long.Max. timeZHRexReliability
rev.-m/s-AUUTmeteors-
514790.00606-15.540.017139.69913.08.2100 18:0211

In this decade years 2091-2093 will give normal activity no more than 100 meteors on ZHR scale. In 2094-2096 activity will rise up to 120-140 meteors on ZHR scale. After that in 2097-2099 Saturn and Jupiter influence will cause a strong increase of background activity up to 200 meteors on ZHR scale. Finally, in 2100 activity will be also somewhat heightened with ZHR of 120-140 meteors.


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